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Project_Mercury_Expansion_Model.xlsx
Formula lineage & sensitivity tracking
| A | B | C | D | E | F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ($ in thousands) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY26E |
| 2 | New Market Revenue | 1,200.0 | 1,500.0 | 1,800.0 | 2,200.0 | 6,700.0 |
| 3 | Gross Margin % | 68.0% | 68.0% | 68.0% | 68.0% | 68.0% |
| 4 | Launch Expenses | (200.0) | (200.0) | (200.0) | (200.0) | (800.0) |
| 5 | Market Churn Rate | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 6 | Operating EBITDA | 616.0 | 820.0 | 1,024.0 | 1,296.0 | 3,756.0 |
| 7 | Discount Rate | 12.0% | ||||
| 8 | Projected NPV | 8,421.0 | ||||
| 9 | Target ROIC | 22.5% |
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The P&L took a big hit but somehow cash hasn't really moved. Something doesn't feel right.
Plots history and forecast for every driver. A big recurring expense is missing from prepaids.
The deck goes out at 1 a.m. the night before the board meeting. The internal deadline was last Thursday.
A board deck is available on request, every figure tied to the model.
Planning season opens with a blank sheet. Nobody checks how last year's assumptions actually did.
Sales capacity has run 15% optimistic three quarters straight. The plan starts calibrated.
Pipeline has signaled the slowdown for months, but the CRO is still calling the number. The quarter misses big.
The scenario is flagged in March, grounded in history; the business has two quarters to react.
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Frequently asked questions
Finance work that finally
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